U.S. Has Managed to Push Iran to the Russian Fold: A Disaster with Unwelcome Consequences

Reza Vaghefi — 

Persian Heritage, #111, Spring 2024 — 

“Washington has helped perpetuate animosity. The United States has displayed a callous disregard for Iranian grievances and security concern. Giving a medal to a ship’s captain who just inadvertently killed 290 civilians and then wondering why Iran might harbor resentment is just the most obvious example of American obtuseness.” The Twilight War, Divid Crist, p.572

Introduction:

The purpose of this research is to investigate the causes and effects of a relationship that could have produced significant benefits for both sides instead of animosity, belligerency and counterproductive moves and use of resources that could have produced mutually beneficial results instead of continuous frictions and a very destructive results that have damaged what could have  been a role model for many nations in the region as well as worldwide. Forty-four years of estrangement is too long and has been too unproductive for the people of Iran and the United States.

 

The Chronic and Irritating Issue

A major irritating issue on the US side has been the infamous “Hostage Crisis”.  But why did it happen and what were the circumstances under which such an irrational tragedy took place. The tempestuous period after the revolution was ripe for any minor or major disturbance.  In an explosive environment where scores were being settled and individual security was at stake, it would take great deal of imagination and statesmanship to understand that normal affairs needed to be carefully crafted.

The fluidity of the environment was ripe for anything to trigger emotions and actions which could have unintended consequences. Unfortunately, the fragile situation was not carefully appreciated on both sides.

Ayatollah Khomeini in Exile

While in France as an exile from Iraq, Ayatollah Khomeini had informed the United States, through his representative Dr. Ibrahim Yazdi, that Iran will continue her relationship with the Unted States after the Shah.  Based on that promise Mr. Bazargan, the new Prime Minister and Dr. Ibrahim Yazdi, the foreign minister were meeting with American officials without having publicly announced such meeting. They met in Sweden and then in Algeria. The meeting in Sweden went along but the one in Algeria was leaked though a Kuwaiti reporter. The author of this paper was a professor at Tehran University and heard that some student radicals wanted to occupy the American Embassy for s few hours to express their anger. They did so and Ayatollah Khomeini did not act either way but public pressure was immense, he acquiesced and the saga began which has created a most contentious issue coloring the relationship between the United States and Islamic Republic of Iran.

It may be necessary to state here that the atmosphere in non-communist countries as well as non-NATO members and especially countries like Iran is highly affected and influenced by who is in the White House. The political philosophy of the occupier makes a world of difference as witnessed by the recent presidents. John Kennedy was relatively a peaceful president. He fired the CIA director after the Bay of Pigs disaster. Lindon Bayn Johnson’s bid for the White house was challenged due to his disastrous Gulf of Tonkin and the Vietnam war   Carter had good intentions but was ill-informed in international affairs. Reagan was the most humane of the recent American leaders, “Mr. Gorbachev bring down this wall” made history in the annuals of American literature, is mark of a great stateman.

It is not uncommon for the members of a government to have different views on the same issues but having dogmatic opinion without understanding cultural or political issues involved creates disasters that may end in an impasse and sometime dangerous outcomes.  Former President Carter was the one who praised Iran “as an island of stability in the volatile region”. And he was the one who, just after a year, orchestrated the Shah’s downfall in Guadeloupe. You wonder who was feeding him in the process or was it simply an act of pure stupidity. And then you wonder why the leaders in Iran do not trust the United States. In broad daylight they see massive contradictions in critical matters which continue to this day.

Why President Carter chose Mr. Cyrus Vance as Secretary State and Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski as National security advisor. Two with almost opposite positions in the most critical post. Then an ambassador who had no idea about the local culture and specially of the clergy, nature of opposition in the country he was serving the interest of the United States. Of the three officials mentioned above, ambassador Sullivan was most definitely uninformed and arrogant in his evaluation of the Shah regime. His utterance about Ayatollah Khomeini is proof of his lack of knowledge. After a short visit to Qum where he began his campaign against the Shah, he went back to Tehran. His Ignorance about the clergy mentality, which is true in almost all religions: Christians, Jewish, Budaist, Hindus, etc., indicates the shallowness of one’s erudition about the environment he operates in, and Ambassador Sullivan was the proof. Why would such ill-informed person represent a superpower is itself an indication of the unpreparedness of the United States in international settings.

Iran’s Strategic Location

Over the centuries, the strategic location of Iran has attracted many kings, emperors, Tsars and just hungry armies. It was the rivalry between the two superpowers that constituted the essence of their global strategies world-wide. It was true hundreds of years ago and it is manifestly true now in 2023-4. The only difference is that now China has replaced USSR as a potential threat to freedom seeking nations.

Contentious Issues

Two unforgiveable issues that continue to this day and  create negative attitude, phobia and a roadblock to a better relation have been overthrow of a legitimate government of Iran by CIA in 1953, installing the Shah back on his job which began 25 years of economic progress, some social reforms, not thoroughly comprehended, and rise of poverty and communist ideology and ultimately a revolution with religious orientation which was a cover for so many different and at time opposite ideologies. These were the issues, relative to Iran, when Ronald Reagan assumed the Presidency of the United States. Two achievements of President Carter stand out as significant. He managed to return management of Panama Canal to Panamanian, and he concluded a peace treaty between Egypt and Israe, which now he calls Israel an Apartheid state. He also helped people of Nicaragua to oust Somoza hoping the Sandinistas would provide a democratic government for the people. The latter turned out to be the opposite of what President Carter wished, which renders essence to the idiom be careful of what you wish which applies to Iran as well as Nicaragua. In sum, President Carter’s naiveness about global and cultural issues and specially Iran, harmed millions with a result far worse than Shah’s period. Execution, Poverty, political suppression and prison for anyone perceived to oppose the Islamic regime is unprecedented in Iranian history.

Reagan Era and the Age of Optimism:

Ronald Ragan presidency, a breath of fresh air, brought new hopes, challenges and opportunities. A perennially optimistic leader, Reagan embarked on how to face a menacing USSR in addition to the problems that he inherited from the Carter Administration. As for Iran, the new Islamic regime had neutralized almost all forms of oppositions. Some of the leading intellectual clergy had been liquidated by a mysterious group called “Forgan”.  Names like Ayatollah Mofatah, Dean of School of Theology, at Tehran University, Ayatollah Motahari, a professor at that school in addition to Ayatollah Beheshti, the brain behind the regime, Ayatollah Taleghani who led the movement while Khomeini was in Paris, and a few other notables top clergy were assassinated. Ayatollah Taleghani had a heart attack due to Khomeini’s pressure. Mehdi Hashemi  who organized some tugs in opposing a Reagan delegate was  summarily executed by Ayatollah Khomeini’s order.  Additionally, the last Prime Minister under Shah, Shahpur Bakhtiyar, was executed in Paris in addition to a competent general Owaisi. The militia group that had managed to destabilize Shah’s regime had left Iran fearing elimination and others went underground fearing execution. The National Front leadership that spearheaded the movement was sideline and many left Iran fearing jail.  At this critical moment, Vladimir Kuzichkin a KGB spy, had defected to Great Britain and had disclosed a “treasure throw of documents indicating massive Russian spying system in Iran in addition to the name of Pro-Moscow Tudeh (Communist) party members. The information was passed on to the CIA which surreptitiously transmitted to the new Islamic regime. They were all rounded up and eviscerated.” D.C.Ibid.

The Islamic regime continued to support and arm the Mujahedin in Afghanistan through Northern Alliance. So, there was some common cause shared with U.S. which was heavily arming the Mujaheddin, money from Saudi Arabia and arms from U.S.  Such efforts ultimately led to Russia’s departure from Afghanistan, emergence of Mikhail Gorbachev realizing the disastrous outcome of Soviet occupation of Afghanistan and collapse of USSR.

Reagan’s Humane Attitude

The United States was pursuing two objectives in the conflicts taking place between Iran and Iraq. One was to make sure that Islamic revolutionary zeal does not spread in the Middle East and the other was to watch the Soviet Union and its expansionist appetite, located on Northern border of Iran. One sure thing was that Ayatollah Khomeini was totally against atheism. But in Iraq the Americans were tilting toward Iraq and the Iranians knew this which affected their outlook toward the United States. This added to the feeling that the United States was against the Islamic regime even though Carter’s national security advisor had announced that the United Staes accepted the outcome of the revolution and recognized it. President Reagan wanted to establish a formal relationship with Iran. There was a common understanding that Iran’s strategic location, was critical to western economies.  The massive reserves of oil in and around the Persian Gulf was the Aquiles Hill for the western economies.

The problem facing the Islamic republic was that its power had not yet been completely consolidated and there were hawks in the regime that were against reproachment with the United States. Reagan administration did not give up attempt to pursue the policy of wooing Iran to the West.  In his mind attempting to court Iran looked very much like President Nixson strategic decision toward China to keep it away from USSR. It was a worthwhile attempt and he used everything possible in addition to getting the release of hostages left over from Carter’s era. Reagan’s vision and willingness to help has had no rival in recent years among the American leaders. His humane philosophy always prevailed even against serious odds.

After Reagan, the Bush sailing under the Reagan positive era, came to Office at a very critical time in U.S history. The war between Iran and Iraq had ended without either side getting much out of it except the fact that during 8 years of war more than a million people lost their live and billions of dollars had been evaporated including the destruction of world’s largest oil refinery in Abadan.

Bush’s Legacy

President George Herbert Walker Bush was the most experienced president in recent decades. He had been Director of CIA and Ambassador to China. The hostage issue had not been resolved yet and his policy was to resolve it as early as possible. Given the past Iraqi-Russian relationship President Bush wanted rapprochement with Iran as a counterweight. In his first inaugural he emphasized the issue by indicating: “Assistance can be shown here and will be long remembered. Godwill begets goodwill. Good faith can be a spiral that endlessly moves on”. Then he added” great nations like great men keep their word. When America says something, America means it whether a treaty or an arrangement or a wow made on marble steps”. C.D.p.381. Bush released some money, $567 million, kept in an escrow account, left from Algiers accord. But kept limited intelligence exchange with Iraq.  Iranians learned about this which enhanced their suspicion of the United States. Iran had succeeded releasing all the hostages using tremendous political capital. But Bush reneged using another event as an excuse. Goodwill did not beget goodwill.  A United States President’s word did not mean much which confirmed Iranians’. suspicions.

The Kuwait Crisis

In a normal meeting with the Iraqi dictator, Ms. April Gillespie, a U.S Official, had mentioned that the United States does not intervene in inter-Arab affairs (which may have been a bait). The Iraqi dictator took this simple conversation seriously assuming that he could annex Kuwait. As part of scheme to topple the Kuwait regime, remove Saudi Arabian regime and bring Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan back as the protector of Islam in Mecca and consequently, Saddam would become the new Khalif given the fact that largest populated Arab country, Egypt, had accepted Israel.

So, in short period of time his army occupied Kuwait the latter’s leadership flew to Saudi Arabia. The United States, with support from the United Nations, organized an international force (Japan alone paid $8 billion) which forced Iraq to evacuate Kuwait. Iranians promised help in case of need. But this successful achievement did not help the President in his bid for a second term given the nature of the economy:

“It is the economy stupid”, a campaign slogan led to presidency of Bill Clinton election and 8 years of leadership which revived the economy, managed the conflict among the republics of Serbia, Croatia and others, and left $700.00 billion budget surplus. Immediately after Clinton, George W. Bush run for the presidency. He almost lost to Al Gore, former V.P., in terms of votes in Florida. A re-count of paper votes was underway when Supreme Court stopped it and George W. Bush became the president of the United States.

9/11 and Iraq attack

Two dramatic events marked George W.s presidency and determined his legacy. The 9/11 and the war on Iraq. One unpredicted and the other as the consequence of the first.

The 9/11 was indeed the work of a fanatic who thought the Christian soldiers should not have put their feet on the soil of holly places of Islam (during Kuwait issue). Osama Ben Laden led a movement called Al Qaeda, meaning “base”. He began in Sudan and under pressure moved to northern part of Afghanistan, at the time run by Taliban. From there he trained many fanatics in the art of sabotage and destructive behavior in the name of Islam. From this liquidous group came some Arab young men that flew three passenger planes into World Trade Center Towers in New York City and Pentagon in addition to one that was brought down by passengers before it had an opportunity to do mischief in Philadelphia.

So, the first order of business was to annihilate Ben Laden by draining his swamps. With direct help from Northern Alliance (fed mostly by Iran), the American forces (under General  Tommy Franks) scattered Ben Laden.  He ran away, many of his followers were eliminated. With direct help from Iran’s emissary Dr. Javad Zariff United States installed Hamid Karzai.  There were strenuous efforts by Afghans to bring back Zaher Shah who had been deposed years ago by his cousin, Davood Khan. But the negotiating skills of Dr. Zariff was impressive, and Karzai was selected and installed as President of Afghanistan.

During the latter part of Clinton presidency, a group of influential conservative American, known as Neocons (most of American Enterprise Institute), wrote to President Clinton recommending overthrowing Iraqi regime because it was a threat to Israel. Clinton disregarded the letter, but such thought did not die. When George W. Bush became president, with V.P. Dick Cheney on his right, the Neocons revived the old notion, it seemed very much like an Israeli cabal was back in power, in various capacities, with the intention of attacking Iraq.

Bush’s Blunder:

With Afghanistan problem behind him, Bush focused on Iraq. A subject that had drawn his attention. So, in January 2002, in his State of the Union, he singled out “North Korea, Iraq and Iran” as an axis of evil aiming to threaten the peace of the world.  Why he added Iran in that group is interesting. The Israeli Cabal had finally brought its enmity toward Iran on the TV screens. And Bush who was not known as an articulate and intelligent man read most of what was handed over to him in a statement written by Mr. Frumm. Bush’s lack of articulation became one more piece of evidence of his animosity toward the Islamic Republic. He must have been totally unaware that it was the competent Iranian delegate Dr. Javad Zariff who had helped the United States install Karzai as president of Afghanistan.

There was a sharp reaction in Tehran and taken together with a belligerent statement from Newt Gingrich, speaker of the house, it left a bitter impression on the Islamic regime which increased the level of apprehension and plus phobia about United States intentions.

Given all the evidence it may be fair to say that George W. Bush Administration was highly influenced by Israeli Cabal who at every turn scuttled an opening with Iran to settle the issues that were resolvable if the two parties would enter  into negotiation in good faith. On many occasions Iranians offered to normalize relationship with United states. “We are ready to normalize”. Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs emphatically mentioned. Supreme leader was quoted saying that “everything is negotiable”.  This spirit was repeated on many occasions and the Cabal in the State Department, National Security Council and Defense made every effort to scuttle it. On one occasion, John Bolton, the cheer leader in the Cabal, attacked the Swiss officer, who had caried Iran’s message of good faith, as someone who had irresponsibly interfered in the U.S. affairs. In a way one could argue that the attempt by people of goodwill was hijacked by the Cabal.

Additionally, it seemed that the American policy toward Islamic republic was based on prejudice and suspicion which remains unresolved. Former President who squandered $700.00 billion surplus handed to him by Clinton in addition to a shattered Iraq, and the U.S. economy in total disarray in addition to laying out the conditions that created Islamic states have become part of G.W. Bush legacy.

Obama’s Reign

It seemed that finally a clear-headed leader had entered the Whithouse. Barak Obama was the most educated president, since John F. Kennedy, to assume the leadership of the United States and the free world.

Looking at the behavior of former presidents, Jimmy Carter,  George H.W. Bush and his son George W. Bush and the way they handled the treatment of mutual issues between the United States and Iran President Obama announced that: “he would sit down and meet the Iranian leaders without preconditions. Demanding that a country meet all your conditions before you meet with them is not a strategy, it’s just naïve, wishful thinking”, The Twilight War, D.C. p.539 Iranians have a bad memory about capitulation.

President Obama did not stop. He continued to emphasize that the two nations could negotiate to resolve sticking issues with mutual respect. He even wrote letters to the supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei. At one point the latter referred to some sanctions that could be removed as a sign of goodwill. Obama even quoted the first line of the most famous poet Saadi saying.

“The children of Adam are the limbs to each other, having been created of the same essence”. But sanctions, most of them imposed on the Islamic Republic buy previous presidents seemed to hurt and they rendered nuances by President Obama ineffective. Iranians had been had before and was hard to believe Obama’s statements serious.

Although Obama had noted the Iranian nuclear activity not threatening if they did not create a rivalry in the neighboring states like Saudi Arabia. In his mind nuclear capable was different from making Bomb which so many U.S. officials including, Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff and Israels providing timeline for a bomb had predicted. They all proved false.

The last Phase of U.S. Iran Relations.

President Obama referred to America’s mistakes in removing the legitimate government of Dr. Mossadegh. Additionally, he emphasized Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear power but not nuclear weapon. Before leaving the white House President Obama together with other members of the UN Security Council plus Germany initiated an agreement, signed to curtail Iran’s nuclear activities and Islamic regime accepted the agreement. But former president Trump withdraw from the agreement. Applying “Maximum Pressure” strategy, stupidly, pushed the Iranian regime further away from “Satan”. It simply showed that the United States has a deep misunderstanding of other cultures, to the detriment of its own long-term strategy.

It should be stated here that the Iranian Supreme leader, who has the final word on critical issues agreed to the effort having said that “Sky is not falling”, in response to the hawks in the regime. Which also means that the leader is not against reasonable actions. However, as a great nation, the United States, could have removed some sanctions as a goodwill gesture to entice the suspicious regime. But the great Stateman, George Herbert Walker Bush never came forward with a winnable strategy and the problem remains unresolved as it has been for decades.

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Sources:

– A Twilight War, David Crist,

– All the Shah’s Men, Stephen Kinzer