{"id":109355,"date":"2023-03-17T08:05:35","date_gmt":"2023-03-17T13:05:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/?p=109355"},"modified":"2023-03-17T08:05:35","modified_gmt":"2023-03-17T13:05:35","slug":"what-to-expect-from-iran-saudi-arabia-relationship-refresh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/2023\/03\/17\/what-to-expect-from-iran-saudi-arabia-relationship-refresh\/","title":{"rendered":"What to expect from Iran-Saudi Arabia relationship refresh"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"sc-liaBrn ijrKQk\">\n<p class=\"sc-gicCDI sc-bZkfAO czqpjL hngCMv sc-afnQL btTUfE teaser-text\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-109356 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Iran-Saudi-300x200.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Iran-Saudi-300x200.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Iran-Saudi-150x100.jpeg 150w, https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Iran-Saudi.jpeg 600w, https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Iran-Saudi-24x16.jpeg 24w, https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Iran-Saudi-36x24.jpeg 36w, https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/Iran-Saudi-48x32.jpeg 48w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>DW \u2014 The two long-time foes say they will improve their relationship. If they do, the detente could have a major impact on politics in the Middle East.<\/p>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"sc-jevyBF bmltHe in-line closed\" data-tracking-name=\"sharing-icons-inline\">\n<div class=\"always-visible\"><\/div>\n<\/section>\n<div class=\"sc-gicCDI sc-bZkfAO czqpjL hngCMv sc-iLIByi kkWXvA rich-text has-italic\">\n<p>For many observers of the region,\u00a0<a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/saudi-arabia-iran-agree-to-restore-diplomatic-ties\/a-64947380\">the announcement<\/a>\u00a0came as a surprise. After years of rivalry and tensions, Saudi Arabia and Iran apparently want to start a new phase in their relationship.<\/p>\n<p>The decision is one that could have both regional and international impacts because in many areas and on many fronts, the two nations are opponents and have squared off against one another, both indirectly and\u00a0directly.<\/p>\n<p>The two countries have supported opposing parties to various conflicts:\u00a0for example, in Syria during the civil war there, and to this day\u00a0in the war in Yemen. In Iraq, Lebanon and Bahrain, they have become involved in local politics on opposing sides. According to the Saudi leadership, Iran is responsible for some of the rocket attacks on its oil facilities in the Persian Gulf.<\/p>\n<h2>A new chapter<\/h2>\n<p>Yet now Saudi Arabia and Iran say they want to open a new chapter on their relationship.<\/p>\n<p>There are good reasons for both to do so. In their attacks on one another, they are hurting themselves more than their foe \u2014 and in both political and economic terms. Additionally, neither side has been able to gain any real supremacy over the other.<\/p>\n<p>This realization is not something new. Two years ago, representatives from Saudi Arabia and Iran were already negotiating behind closed doors, recalled Sebastian Sons, a senior researcher and Saudi Arabia expert at the Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient (CARPO), a German think tank.\u00a0\u00a0At the same time, it&#8217;s still true that the Saudis don&#8217;t trust the Iranians, he said.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;But that is exactly why the Saudi leadership is being forced to come to an arrangement with Iran,&#8221; he explained. &#8220;An agreement is of the highest priority for the [Saudi] kingdom.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"render-container tweet embed\">\n<div class=\"sc-gspIFj bEWNCO\">\n<blockquote data-id=\"1634222999351033858\">\n<div class=\"twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered\"><iframe id=\"twitter-widget-0\" class=\"\" title=\"Twitter Tweet\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?dnt=false&amp;embedId=twitter-widget-0&amp;features=eyJ0ZndfdGltZWxpbmVfbGlzdCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOltdLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2ZvbGxvd2VyX2NvdW50X3N1bnNldCI6eyJidWNrZXQiOnRydWUsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfdHdlZXRfZWRpdF9iYWNrZW5kIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9uIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19yZWZzcmNfc2Vzc2lvbiI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJvbiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfbWl4ZWRfbWVkaWFfMTU4OTciOnsiYnVja2V0IjoidHJlYXRtZW50IiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19leHBlcmltZW50c19jb29raWVfZXhwaXJhdGlvbiI6eyJidWNrZXQiOjEyMDk2MDAsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9LCJ0ZndfZHVwbGljYXRlX3NjcmliZXNfdG9fc2V0dGluZ3MiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib24iLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3ZpZGVvX2hsc19keW5hbWljX21hbmlmZXN0c18xNTA4MiI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJ0cnVlX2JpdHJhdGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2xlZ2FjeV90aW1lbGluZV9zdW5zZXQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijp0cnVlLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3R3ZWV0X2VkaXRfZnJvbnRlbmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib24iLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfX0%3D&amp;frame=false&amp;hideCard=false&amp;hideThread=false&amp;id=1634222999351033858&amp;lang=en&amp;origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dw.com%2Fen%2Fwhat-to-expect-from-the-iran-saudi-arabia-relationship-refresh%2Fa-64987651&amp;sessionId=4c53d932ed1b2caae00576b2fae1c2d8ca4c13f6&amp;siteScreenName=dwnews&amp;theme=light&amp;widgetsVersion=aaf4084522e3a%3A1674595607486&amp;width=550px\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-tweet-id=\"1634222999351033858\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Tehran apparently sees things\u00a0similarly. The new deal is a diplomatic success for the Iranians, said Marcus Schneider, who heads the Friedrich Ebert Foundation&#8217;s Regional Peace and Security Project in Beirut. &#8220;For the [Iranian] regime, it&#8217;s a step out of international isolation at a time when its relations with the West are worsening, going from one low point to the next,&#8221; Schneider told DW.<\/p>\n<h2>Americans out<\/h2>\n<p>The increasing international isolation has certainly made a difference to Iran&#8217;s attitude. Given this, another factor to Iran&#8217;s liking is that the\u00a0<a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/what-to-expect-from-xis-trip-to-china-arab-summit\/a-64006308\">Chinese apparently helped to broker<\/a>\u00a0this new detente.<\/p>\n<p>China&#8217;s relationship with Western nations has also been deteriorating lately. Brokering this new relationship\u00a0<a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/iran-saudi-deal-chinas-growing-clout-in-the-middle-east\/a-64983922\">establishes China as a power to be reckoned with<\/a>\u00a0in the Middle East, Schneider told DW. &#8220;It also serves Tehran&#8217;s interests in that it drives the Americans out of the region, or at least reduces their influence,&#8221; the Beirut-based expert continued.<\/p>\n<p>Chinese relations with Iran have been good for some time now. In early 2021, both sides signed a trade deal that would see China invest around $400 billion (\u20ac372 billion) there over the next 25 years.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"placeholder-image master_landscape big\">\n<div class=\"render-container\">\n<div class=\"sc-evrZIY iOdYFo sc-fIavCj kUdzMx lazy-load-container\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lq-img loaded\" src=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/59088250_900.jpg\" alt=\"A helicopter lifts off of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln as it transits the Strait of Hormuz..\" aria-hidden=\"true\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"hq-img loaded\" title=\"A helicopter lifts off of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln as it transits the Strait of Hormuz..\" src=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/59088250_906.jpg\" alt=\"A helicopter lifts off of the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln as it transits the Strait of Hormuz..\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"img-caption\">The US has sent aircraft carriers into the Persian Gulf as a result of increased tensions with Iran<small class=\"copyright\">Image: Stephanie Contreras\/U.S. Navy\/AP Photo\/picture alliance<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Meanwhile, the Saudis have been hedging their bets and turning away from their traditional ally, the US, for the past few years. American leaders have been critical of the Saudis&#8217; human rights record and were perceived as not being supportive enough when oil facilities were attacked, allegedly by Yemeni rebels firing Iranian-made rockets.<\/p>\n<p>Saudi Arabia has demonstrated that it won&#8217;t necessarily do the US&#8217; bidding. For example, last September, at a meeting of oil producing nations in\u00a0<a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/cutting-opec-oil-production-favors-russia\/a-63358454\">the OPEC+ group<\/a>, the Saudis chose not to do as the US had asked and did not lobby to increase production to bring down\u00a0oil prices.<\/p>\n<p>That doesn&#8217;t indicate that the Saudis are planning a complete change of course or breaking away from Western partners altogether, Sons noted: &#8220;But you have to see that rapprochement with Iran is a very high priority in Riyadh.&#8221;<\/p>\n<h2>Destabilizing factors<\/h2>\n<p>The fact that these two rival nations say they will become friendlier may lead to positive consequences in the Middle East.<\/p>\n<p>Iran might pull back as a destabilizing force in the region, Schneider suggested. In neighboring Iraq, Iran supports militia groups that have a large, disruptive influence on the local government. In Lebanon, Iran supports the organization\u00a0Hezbollah, which also plays a meaningful role in that country&#8217;s politics. Iran may decide to agitate less via these proxies.<\/p>\n<p>The new Saudi-Iranian detente may also finally see\u00a0<a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/yemen-sees-little-hope-for-end-to-war-in-2023\/a-64125160\">the war in Yemen<\/a>\u00a0coming to some kind of end. Iran supports the Houthi rebels in that country, while Saudi Arabia has led a coalition against them. The hopeless nature of that war seems to have become clear to the Saudis, who desire a resolution either in the form of an end to fighting or, at the very least, much less of it. For this to happen, the warring parties inside\u00a0<a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/yemen\/t-38381376\">Yemen<\/a>\u00a0would also have to agree to a new cease-fire, and only time will tell whether they are willing to do so.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"placeholder-image master_landscape big\">\n<div class=\"render-container\">\n<div class=\"sc-evrZIY iOdYFo sc-fIavCj kUdzMx lazy-load-container\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lq-img loaded\" src=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/61385060_900.jpg\" alt=\" Yemeni police inspect a site of Saudi-led airstrikes targeting two houses in Sanaa, Yemen, .\" aria-hidden=\"true\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"hq-img loaded\" title=\" Yemeni police inspect a site of Saudi-led airstrikes targeting two houses in Sanaa, Yemen, .\" src=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/61385060_906.jpg\" alt=\" Yemeni police inspect a site of Saudi-led airstrikes targeting two houses in Sanaa, Yemen, .\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"img-caption\">The devastating war in Yemen might end if Iran and Saudi Arabia get closer<small class=\"copyright\">Image: Hani Mohammed\/AP Photo\/picture alliance<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The situation is different with regard to Israel, a country that Iran often threatens. In 2020, Israel signed the so-called Abraham Accords with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, also countries that see Iran as an enemy. Saudi Arabia has yet to agree to any such normalization with Israel, even as it quietly improves relations with the latter\u00a0behind the scenes.<\/p>\n<p>It is possible that the new relationship between the Saudis and Iranians has come about because of how what is known as the Iran nuclear deal has been developing, Schneider explained. After years of trying to come to an arrangement with Iran\u00a0that would see the country abandoning any attempt to produce its own nuclear weapons in return for sanctions being lifted, the deal increasingly looks impossible.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"placeholder-image master_landscape big\">\n<div class=\"render-container\">\n<div class=\"sc-evrZIY iOdYFo sc-fIavCj kUdzMx lazy-load-container\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lq-img loaded\" src=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/62030982_900.jpg\" alt=\"Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump, and Foreign Affairs Minister of the United Arab Emirates Abdullah bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan participate in the signing ceremony of the Abraham Accords at the White House.\" aria-hidden=\"true\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"hq-img loaded\" title=\"Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump, and Foreign Affairs Minister of the United Arab Emirates Abdullah bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan participate in the signing ceremony of the Abraham Accords at the White House.\" src=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/62030982_906.jpg\" alt=\"Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump, and Foreign Affairs Minister of the United Arab Emirates Abdullah bin Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan participate in the signing ceremony of the Abraham Accords at the White House.\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"img-caption\">The so-called Abraham Accords were brokered by the US<small class=\"copyright\">Image: Alex Wong\/Getty Images<\/small><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&#8220;If an Israeli-US military strike against Iran were to happen, the Gulf states might be the first victims of Iranian retaliation,&#8221; Schneider suggested. &#8220;Past attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure would then only be a foretaste.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>This way, the Saudis might escape Iranian revenge, the Qatar-connected publication\u00a0Al Araby Al-Jadeed\u00a0wrote on Monday.<\/p>\n<p>The new detente also shows that the Saudis don&#8217;t really have any interest in making a relationship with Israel official, said CARPO expert Sons. &#8220;Above all, Saudi Arabia currently wants to avoid any further escalation with Iran,&#8221; Sons noted.<\/p>\n<h2>Human rights not expected to improve<\/h2>\n<p>Even if certain conflicts in the Middle East were to improve as a result of the relationship refresh between Saudi Arabia and Iran, it seems unlikely that this would have much impact on the dire human rights situation in either country. The governments in both Iran and Saudi Arabia regularly commit human rights violations,\u00a0<a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/saudi-arabia-record-45-year-sentence-stokes-womens-rights-fears\/a-63003282\">imprisoning political opponents<\/a>\u00a0and often topping human rights organizations&#8217; lists of wrongdoing in everything from repressing local media freedom to\u00a0<a class=\"internal-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/saudi-arabia-executions-thwart-trust-in-reforms\/a-64607036\">capital punishment.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The country that mediated between the two nations \u2014 China \u2014 is also often criticized by human rights activists. Questions of human rights will &#8220;definitely not play a role&#8221; in either Iran or Saudi Arabia amid the relationship refresh, Sons concluded.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>DW \u2014 The two long-time foes say they will improve their relationship. If they do, the detente could have a major impact on politics in the Middle East. For many observers of the region,\u00a0the announcement\u00a0came as a surprise. After years of rivalry and tensions, Saudi Arabia and Iran apparently want to start a new phase [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":109356,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-109355","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latests"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"3.0.2","language":"en","enabled_languages":["fa","en"],"languages":{"fa":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":false},"en":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false}}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109355","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=109355"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109355\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":109358,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/109355\/revisions\/109358"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/109356"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=109355"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=109355"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=109355"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}