{"id":90817,"date":"2020-11-30T07:43:56","date_gmt":"2020-11-30T12:43:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/?p=90817"},"modified":"2020-11-30T07:43:56","modified_gmt":"2020-11-30T12:43:56","slug":"auto-draft-347","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/2020\/11\/30\/auto-draft-347\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts: Iran Likely to Delay Response to Assassination of Top Nuclear Scientist"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\"VOA \u2014 Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has vowed to avenge the assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh \u2014 a killing he and other Iranian leaders blame on Israel. But some diplomats and analysts say they don\u2019t expect Iran to retaliate quickly for the meticulously planned shooting Friday of the 59-year-old scientist, the second senior Iranian military figure to be assassinated this year.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Iran will bide its time following the death of Fakhrizadeh, who was widely seen as the father of Iran\u2019s covert nuclear program, they suspect, fearing otherwise they might provoke a fierce military response from outgoing U.S. President Donald Trump.\u202f\u00a0<\/p>\n

Iranian leaders will also likely be considering whether retaliation will complicate President-elect Joe Biden\u2019s plan to restart a diplomatic engagement with Iran.\u202f\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cIt would be a huge miscalculation heading into a Biden administration,\u201d says Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based research group. \u201cIf Iran were to carry out some kind of attack, or to engage in violent activities that were clearly attributed to the regime, it would, I think, represent a huge unforced error.\u201d That is if Tehran\u2019s \u201cprimary goal\u201d is to get out from under the \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d campaign being pursued against it by the Trump administration, Israel and U.S. allies in the Gulf, he adds.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Biden has said he wants to revive the 2015 international deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, negotiated by his former boss, President Barack Obama, that saw the Iranians curtail their nuclear program in return for sanctions relief.<\/p>\n

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FILE – Then-US Secretary of State John Kerry (L) meets with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif in Vienna, Jan. 16, 2016.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Trump unilaterally abandoned the deal, which was co-signed by Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China, in favor of a \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d campaign against Iran.\u202f\u00a0<\/p>\n

Biden\u2019s nominee for secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said at a conference in August he hoped the nuclear deal could be renegotiated to be \u201cstronger and longer.\u201d\u202f\u00a0<\/p>\n

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President-elect Joe Biden’s nominee for Secretary of State Tony Blinken speaks at The Queen theater, Nov. 24, 2020, in Wilmington, Del.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

But Schanzer cautions \u201cthe impulse for revenge\u201d will likely be strong, especially as it is just weeks away from the first anniversary of the U.S. assassination of top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, Iran’s most important military strategist and tactician in Tehran’s long-standing campaign to expand Shi’ite and Iranian influence throughout the Middle East.<\/p>\n

His\u202fcar was hit in a U.S. drone strike while it was traveling near Baghdad airport. U.S. officials say he was targeted because he had been behind attacks on American diplomats and military personnel and was plotting further attacks.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\"Iranian<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>
FILE – People attend a funeral procession and burial for Iranian Major-General Qassem Soleimani in his hometown in Kerman, Iran, Jan. 7, 2020. (Mehdi Bolourian\/Fars News Agency\/WANA via Reuters)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

There were dire warnings from Iran after the assassination of Soleimani, a move David Petraeus, a former American army general, dubbed as \u201cmore consequential\u201d than the killing of Osama bin Laden or of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Iran issued expansive threats with the Iranian military saying the U.S. would face \u201csevere revenge which would make them regret their decision.\u201d Some analysts warned the killing could set the entire region alight.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But the Iranians were circumspect in their response. Hours after Soleimani\u2019s burial on January 7, the Iranian military did launch a missile strike against two Iraqi bases housing American soldiers in Iraq but no lives were lost, in part because the U.S. and Iraq were tipped off, according to U.S. and Arab sources at the time. An Iranian commander said Tehran had not intended to kill anyone.\u202f\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\"A<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>
FILE – A crater is seen at Ain al-Asad air base, in Anbar, Iraq, Jan. 13, 2020, following an Iranian missile attack.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cIran appears to be standing down, which is a good thing for all parties concerned,\u201d Trump said the following day. Western diplomats suggested Iran was cautious in its response because it feared a fierce U.S. counterstrike, one that might target members of the Iranian leadership.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\"Israeli<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>
FILE – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu points at a screen with an image of Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh during a news conference at the Ministry of Defence in Tel Aviv, April 30, 2018.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Fakhrizadeh\u2019s role behind Iran\u2019s clandestine efforts to develop a nuclear bomb was highlighted by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in 2018. Fakhrizadeh was killed by gunmen in a daylight attack on the vehicle he was traveling in near the rural town of Absard, just east of the capital, Tehran.\u202f\u00a0<\/p>\n

Israel has not claimed responsibility but has also not denied being behind it. Military experts say the incident bears the hallmarks of the killings in Tehran of four Iranian nuclear scientists between 2010 and 2012.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Some Middle East experts say they doubt Fakhrizadeh\u2019s slaying will impact Iran\u2019s nuclear program.<\/p>\n

\u201cFakhrizadeh was to Iran\u2019s nuclear program what Soleimani was to its proxy network. He was instrumental to its development and the creation of an infrastructure to support it, ensuring that his death won\u2019t fundamentally alter the course of Iran\u2019s nuclear program,\u201d tweeted Ariane Tabatabai, a Fellow and Middle East expert at the German Marshall Fund, a Washington-based research institution.\u202f\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tabatabai says she believes Iran will retaliate, noting that when it is going to respond it avoids identifying the perpetrators. \u201cWhen it plans to respond [see Soleimani], it points a finger [it seems on track to do so here],\u201d she tweeted.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Others say a response is likely but probably not for some time. \u201cThe Iranians can take up to one to two years to retaliate,\u201d Olivier Guitta, a British counter-terrorism expert, told VOA. \u201cThey take their time and prepare their attacks very meticulously,\u201d added Guitta, managing director of GlobalStrat, a security and geopolitical risk consultancy.\u00a0\u202f\u00a0<\/p>\n

Israel has increased security at its embassies around the world and Jewish communities have also been told to maintain vigilance. Iran has attacked Israel\u2019s diplomatic missions before. In 1992, following the killing of Hezbollah leader Abbas Musawi in southern Lebanon, an Iranian-directed team of bombers, said Argentine prosecutors, triggered a powerful blast outside the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires, killing 29 people, including three Israeli embassy personnel and local civilians.\u00a0<\/p>\n

In 2012, bombs were planted on Israeli diplomatic vehicles in New Delhi, India and Tbilisi, Georgia. The Tbilisi bomb failed to detonate, but the one in New Delhi exploded and wounded one embassy employee. Israel accused Iran of being behind the attacks. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Other possible retaliatory action could involve an armed drone strike on Israel, launched from Syria, as happened in 2018, when an explosives-laden drone was shot down by an Israeli helicopter before reaching its target. The Israeli military has prepared for possible reprisals, including testing its air defenses for a long-range Iranian missile attack.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, Israeli officials, according to The Jerusalem Post<\/em> newspaper columnist Anshel Pfeffer, may have concluded this was the \u201ctime to take out high-value targets\u201d banking on the Iranians holding back from responding. He says Fakhrizadeh had been a potential target for years but the timing now likely was guided by Israeli intelligence assuming \u201cIran will not embark on a drastic course until the regime has a clear idea of the Biden administration\u2019s exact policy regarding a return to the 2015 nuclear agreement.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

Schanzer agrees but says most likely “the primary concern was being able to take out targets of opportunity now before the window closes.\u201d \u00a0<\/p>\n

According to Schanzer, \u201cThe Israelis might not have as much operational freedom as they do now under the Trump administration. This isn’t to say that the Biden administration would ignore Israeli security concerns, or halt such strikes, but one does get a sense that they’ve got an unfettered green light right now from the Trump administration.\u201d \u00a0<\/p>\n

U.S. officials have denied involvement in Friday\u2019s killing.\u00a0<\/p>\n

There have been widespread predictions recently by diplomats and analysts that the outgoing Trump administration, Israel and Saudi Arabia would likely ramp up pressure on Iran. Last week, Netanyahu reportedly met in Saudi Arabia with Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. The Saudis denied the report and Netanyahu refused to comment.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

VOA \u2014 Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has vowed to avenge the assassination of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh \u2014 a killing he and other Iranian leaders blame on Israel. But some diplomats and analysts say they don\u2019t expect Iran to retaliate quickly for the meticulously planned shooting Friday of the 59-year-old scientist, the second senior Iranian […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":90818,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-90817","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latests"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"3.0.2","language":"en","enabled_languages":["fa","en"],"languages":{"fa":{"title":true,"content":false,"excerpt":false},"en":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":false}}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90817","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=90817"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90817\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":90820,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/90817\/revisions\/90820"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/90818"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=90817"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=90817"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=90817"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}