{"id":91551,"date":"2020-12-31T08:15:02","date_gmt":"2020-12-31T13:15:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/?p=91551"},"modified":"2020-12-31T08:15:02","modified_gmt":"2020-12-31T13:15:02","slug":"auto-draft-403","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/2020\/12\/31\/auto-draft-403\/","title":{"rendered":"US-Iran tensions rise in Iraq, as Qassem Soleimani assassination anniversary nears"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"intro\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-91552 alignleft\" src=\"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Iraq-Protester-300x200.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"200\" srcset=\"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Iraq-Protester-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Iraq-Protester-150x100.jpg 150w, https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Iraq-Protester.jpg 600w, https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Iraq-Protester-24x16.jpg 24w, https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Iraq-Protester-36x24.jpg 36w, https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/Iraq-Protester-48x32.jpg 48w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/>DW \u2014 Iraqis fear a flare-up in sectarian tensions after Iran vowed revenge for killing military leader Qassem Soleimani in January. But some fear that factions within the Iraqi security forces could also threaten stability.<\/p>\n<div class=\"group\">\n<div class=\"longText\">\n<p>January 3 marks the first anniversary of the death of senior Iranian military leader\u00a0Qassem\u00a0Soleimani. The major general <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/qassem-soleimani-timeline-of-events-following-iranian-generals-assassination\/a-51910195\">was killed<\/a>\u00a0in a US-directed drone attack\u00a0while visiting Baghdad.<\/p>\n<p>In a statement earlier this month, Iran&#8217;s religious leader, Ayatollah Ali\u00a0Khamenei, repeated his country&#8217;s desire for revenge. For Iraqis, this may well pose a danger.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;We fear that Iraq will become the arena for the settling of scores and that this will only hurt innocent Iraqis,&#8221; said\u00a0Nazem Shukr, a civil servant from Iraq&#8217;s Anbar province. &#8220;We&#8217;re worried that Iran will retaliate, America will react and then we&#8217;ll go back to square one, like in 2006 when there were sectarian tensions and many were killed,&#8221; he told DW.<\/p>\n<div class=\"longText\">\n<div class=\"gallery col2\">\n<div class=\"imgTeaserM slideshow noDim\" data-id=\"51900244\" data-title=\"Iran: Qassem Soleimani funeral \u2014 in pictures\" data-date=\"20200106\" data-firstcategory=\"19990022\">\n<ul class=\"slides\">\n<li class=\"first\">\n<div class=\"teaserImg\"><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"The coffin of slain general Qassem Soleimani is passed among the crowds in Tehran (AFP\/Office of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)\" src=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/51898698_302.jpg\" alt=\"The coffin of slain general Qassem Soleimani is passed among the crowds in Tehran (AFP\/Office of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei)\" \/><\/div>\n<div class=\"teaserContentWrap\">\n<div class=\"tools\">\u00a0<\/div>\n<h4>Iran: Qassem Soleimani funeral \u2014 in pictures<\/h4>\n<h2>Coffin passed through the crowd<\/h2>\n<p>The coffin of slain general Qassem Soleimani was passed among the crowd in Tehran, allowing them a chance to touch the sarcophagus. The remains of the general, killed by US airstrikes in Baghdad, were flown back to Tehran on Monday. Crowds chanted &#8220;Death to America!&#8221; and &#8220;Revenge! Revenge!&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&#8220;Nobody thinks there will be outright war but some Iraqis believe Trump would like to target the Iranians \u2014 or their allies inside Iraq \u2014 in the last few weeks of his term,&#8221; says Hussam Zuwain, a civil-society activist from southern Najaf province. &#8220;We&#8217;re worried about American reactions.&#8221;<\/p>\n<div class=\"picBox full\n\"><a class=\"overlayLink init\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/us-iran-tensions-rise-in-iraq-as-qassem-soleimani-assassination-anniversary-nears\/a-56095476#\" rel=\"nofollow\"> <img decoding=\"async\" title=\"View of the US Embassy in Baghdad from across the river Tigris.\" src=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/52396667_401.jpg\" alt=\"View of the US Embassy in Baghdad from across the river Tigris.\" \/> <\/a><\/p>\n<p>The US Embassy in Baghdad has been targeted by rockets many times during 2020<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Rise in attacks on US bases<\/h2>\n<p>Since Soleimani&#8217;s assassination at the beginning of the year,\u00a0there have been a series of rocket attacks on US bases around Iraq, as well as on the Green Zone, a high-security district in Baghdad housing the Iraqi government and foreign embassies.<\/p>\n<p>There are 3,000 US troops\u00a0left in Iraq. In November, the US announced plans to draw those down to 2,500\u00a0by January 15, and non-essential staff\u00a0have already left the US Embassy. US President Donald Trump has tweeted that the death of an American citizen would be a red line, requiring retaliation.<\/p>\n<h2>Neither country wants war<\/h2>\n<p>The situation was probably more dangerous earlier in 2020 straight after the assassination, says Iraq-based researcher Sajad Jiyad, a fellow at The Century Foundation think tank. At that stage, Iran was firing rockets directly at US bases in Iraq.<\/p>\n<p>But since June, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/why-the-us-and-iran-are-not-at-war\/a-51932681\">the aggressive rhetoric has calmed<\/a>, he told DW. In a recent\u00a0interview, Iran&#8217;s ambassador to Iraq pointed out that revenge for Soleimani need not involve military intervention. Observers believe that Iran is biding its time, waiting for the\u00a0change of administration in the US.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier this month, the top US general in the region, Kenneth McKenzie, also told American media that, although there was &#8220;heightened risk,&#8221;\u00a0he did not think Iran wanted war.<\/p>\n<p>The real danger it seems, comes from inside Iraq, from increasingly delinquent militia groups.<\/p>\n<div class=\"col3\">\n<div class=\"standaloneWrap\">\n<div class=\"imgTeaserL video\" data-media-id=\"51915822\">\n<div class=\"mediaItem\" data-media-id=\"51915822\">\n<div class=\"teaserImg\" title=\"Outpouring of grief for Soleimani\">\u00a0<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col3\">\n<div class=\"standaloneWrap\">\n<div class=\"imgTeaserL video\" data-media-id=\"51915822\">\n<div class=\"mediaItem\" data-media-id=\"51915822\">\n<div class=\"teaserImg\" title=\"Outpouring of grief for Soleimani\">\n<div class=\"playButtonArea\">\n<div class=\"customPlayBtn\">\n<div class=\"playBtnImgBox\">\u00a0<\/div>\n<p><span class=\"playBtnText\">Watch video<\/span> <span class=\"right\">02:07<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"teaserContentWrap information\">\n<h2>Outpouring of grief for Soleimani as US-Iran tensions rise<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Iraq&#8217;s deep state<\/h2>\n<p>When the extremist Sunni Muslim group known as &#8220;Islamic State&#8221; (IS) began advancing in 2015, a call went out for volunteers to defend their own communities. It\u00a0led to the establishment of informal militia groups, mostly consisting of Shiite Muslim locals. The\u00a0volunteer fighters were seen as heroes.<\/p>\n<p>But after the crisis ended, the majority of these paramilitary groups did not disband and, over time, they have evolved to be\u00a0part of official Iraqi security forces, known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).<\/p>\n<p>Some PMF factions, however, are accused of using a mixture of crime, corruption and violence to dominate parts of the country. And as a network, the PMF are seen as powerful enough to challenge the Iraqi government itself.<\/p>\n<p>The PMF are also split along\u00a0ideological lines.\u00a0A large number of fighters <a href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/pro-iranian-militias-how-autonomous-are-they\/a-52022097\">pledge allegiance to Iranian<\/a>, rather than Iraqi, leaders. The conservative Shiite Muslim theocracy in Iran has provided them with everything from wages and weapons to spiritual and military guidance, and Iran-allied factions are now known as &#8220;the loyalists.&#8221;\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"picBox full\n\"><a class=\"overlayLink init\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/us-iran-tensions-rise-in-iraq-as-qassem-soleimani-assassination-anniversary-nears\/a-56095476#\" rel=\"nofollow\"> <img decoding=\"async\" title=\"A Baghdad poster featuring propaganda for pro-Iran Hezbollah in Iraq\" src=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/56093314_401.jpg\" alt=\"A Baghdad poster featuring propaganda for pro-Iran Hezbollah in Iraq\" \/> <\/a><\/p>\n<p>A poster featuring propaganda for the pro-Iran faction, Kataeb Hezbollah, on Baghdad streets<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2>New generation of militias<\/h2>\n<p>After the assassination of Soleimani and Iraqi paramilitary leader\u00a0Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, who was also killed in the drone attack and who was possibly even more important for Iraqi fighters, the PMF fractured further.<\/p>\n<p>More extremist\u00a0loyalist groups \u2014 in particular, Asaib\u00a0Ahl\u00a0al-Haq and Kataeb Hezbollah \u2014 have seen internal leadership squabbles, have been competing\u00a0for influence and generally became less popular with ordinary Iraqis, according to observers. They often deny having anything to do with rocket attacks on American or Iraqi targets and generally toe\u00a0Iran&#8217;s political line.<\/p>\n<p>Yet\u00a0the rocket attacks have continued. Analysts suspect that a new generation of militias \u2014 smaller, lesser-known splinter groups \u2014 are doing what could\u00a0be described as the established groups&#8217; &#8220;dirty work.&#8221; One of the new group, Saraya Qasim al-Jabarin,\u00a0has\u00a0taken credit for the attempted bombing of a US logistics convoy on December 27, for example.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"picBox full\n\"><a class=\"overlayLink init\" href=\"https:\/\/www.dw.com\/en\/us-iran-tensions-rise-in-iraq-as-qassem-soleimani-assassination-anniversary-nears\/a-56095476#\" rel=\"nofollow\"> <img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Mourners around the car carrying assassinated Iraqi paramilitary chief, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis\" src=\"https:\/\/static.dw.com\/image\/56093217_401.jpg\" alt=\"Mourners around the car carrying assassinated Iraqi paramilitary chief, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis\" \/> <\/a><\/p>\n<p>Mourners around the car carrying assassinated Iraqi paramilitary chief, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. His death left a power vacuum among Iraq&#8217;s PMF.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Militias avoiding public criticism<\/h2>\n<p>&#8220;The method is to create fake groups, claim attacks using these group identities\u00a0and thus mask [established militias&#8217;] role in the attacks,&#8221; writes Michael Knights in a report for the Combating Terrorism Center at US military academy\u00a0West Point, which advises government departments and other institutions.<\/p>\n<p>It means that the established loyalist factions can remain part of Iraq&#8217;s security forces and avoid public criticism, he argues, and since early 2020 onwards, numbers of the new groups have &#8220;skyrocketed.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Iraqi researcher Jiyad isn&#8217;t sure the new groups are simply fronts for older ones. &#8220;My instinct is that they are operationally independent from PMF groups,&#8221; he says. This makes them harder to track. &#8220;There is concern that these groups are more reckless. There&#8217;s much less oversight and that&#8217;s a worrying situation.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>On January 3, this is where the danger lies, Jiyad confirms. &#8220;It comes from these new groups who are not following policy \u2014 so to speak \u2014 from Iran,&#8221; he told DW.<\/p>\n<h2>US Embassy demonstrations likely<\/h2>\n<p>&#8220;The situation in Iraq is precarious for many reasons,&#8221; concludes Lahib Higel, senior Iraq analyst at the policy institute Crisis Group, noting the deteriorating economic situation and ongoing anti-government protests as destabilizing factors.<\/p>\n<p>She thinks locals are right to be worried about January 3. &#8220;Nobody knows for sure what&#8217;s going to happen but you can assume that there will be a demonstration outside the US Embassy,&#8221; Higel told DW. &#8220;I think it will be controlled.&#8221; But, she adds, it really depends who turns up and whether they make any &#8220;mistakes&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p><em>Kamal al-Ayash contributed to this report\u00a0from Iraq.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>DW \u2014 Iraqis fear a flare-up in sectarian tensions after Iran vowed revenge for killing military leader Qassem Soleimani in January. But some fear that factions within the Iraqi security forces could also threaten stability. January 3 marks the first anniversary of the death of senior Iranian military leader\u00a0Qassem\u00a0Soleimani. The major general was killed\u00a0in a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":91552,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-91551","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latests"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"3.0.2","language":"en","enabled_languages":["fa","en"],"languages":{"fa":{"title":true,"content":false,"excerpt":false},"en":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":false}}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91551","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91551"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91551\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":91554,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91551\/revisions\/91554"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/91552"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91551"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91551"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/PERSIAN-HERITAGE.COM\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91551"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}